Justice, Climate, and Stability in the Sahel: Evidence and Learning Series

The Sahel faces intersecting and compounding challenges of escalating and spreading conflict, climate change, and political turmoil. Across the region, record heat, erratic rainfall, and dwindling natural resources converge with fragile governance and deep social cleavages. Weak state presence and governance and limited institutional capacity make it difficult to deliver justice and manage resources equitably. Climate change acts as a threat multiplier, exacerbating these weaknesses in governance and resource management, and creating a vicious cycle: competition over resources fuels local disputes, overstretched traditional systems struggle to cope, and armed groups exploit these gaps by offering their own “justice” and protection.

Through the Justice and Stability in the Sahel (JASS) program, Mercy Corps is generating new evidence on how climate pressures, governance challenges, and social tensions intersect to shape pathways toward peace and stability. Funded by the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) and implemented by Mercy Corps with partners in Mali and Niger, JASS works to strengthen inclusive land governance, local justice, and climate resilience as foundations for stability. Operating in twenty-four communes across both countries, JASS works through community-based institutions to improve collaboration between citizens and the state, reduce conflict, and promote long-term stability.

The Justice, Climate, and Stability in the Sahel: Evidence and Learning Series brings together six major evidence products from JASS: four research reports and two policy briefs. Together, they offer one of the most comprehensive pictures yet of how communities in Mali and Niger experience justice, resilience, and peace amid accelerating climate and security pressures. These studies show that strengthening inclusive, locally led systems of justice, natural resource governance, and conflict management can reduce violence, bolster resilience to climate shocks, and rebuild trust between citizens and the state.

Policy Briefs

• Balancing the Elements: Stability in a Changing Climate
• Breaking Cycles of Violence

Research Reports

• Pathways to Stability: Understanding the Relationship Between Inclusive Natural Resource Governance, Vertical Social Cohesion, and Climate Resilience
• Understanding Violence and Resilience: Measuring and Influencing Attitudes, Perceptions, and Behaviours Related to Violent Extremism in Mali and Niger
• Perceptions of Justice Actors and Conflict Resolution Mechanisms in Mali and Niger
• Identifying and Responding to Community Tensions: ‘The more time passes, the greater the probability of violence’

Theme 1: Climate Adaptation and Conflict Prevention in Fragile State

Pathways to Stability: Understanding the Relationship Between Inclusive Natural Resource Governance, Vertical Social Cohesion, and Climate Resilience 
Based on a large-scale survey experiment, this study tests whether inclusive, community-led natural resource governance models improve perceptions of fairness, equity, and resilience to climate shocks. Results show that participatory, bottom-up governance strengthens trust in institutions and expectations of peaceful dispute resolution, outperforming top-down and status-quo approaches. 
Read the full report

Perceptions of Justice Actors and Conflict Resolution Mechanisms in Mali and Niger 
This complementary report examines how citizens view both formal and informal justice systems, and how these perceptions shape governance and social cohesion. Among more than 3,600 respondents, trust remains strongest in traditional authorities, but perceptions of fairness improve when citizens have access to a broader set of justice actors and possess even moderate legal literacy about land and resource rights. 
Read the full report

Balancing the Elements: Stability in a Changing Climate 
Synthesizing lessons from JASS implementation, this brief illustrates lessons from JASS’s integrated approach to the climate–conflict nexus, showing how community-led governance can reduce tensions over land and resources while improving collective resilience. Findings highlight the success of revitalized local institutions, greater women’s inclusion in land governance, and the establishment of early warning mechanisms that have helped reduce seasonal conflicts. 
Read the policy brief

Theme 2: Preventing Violent Extremism & Stabilisation 

Understanding Violence and Resilience: Measuring and Influencing Attitudes, Perceptions, and Behaviours Related to Violent Extremism in Mali and Niger 
This study explores the social and governance factors shaping vulnerability to violent extremism in JASS areas. It reveals a complex interplay between economic hardship, governance perceptions, marginalization, and social cohesion. It also finds that experiencing climate shocks increases the risk of radicalization, underscoring the role of climate adaptation in prevention. 
Read the full report here

Identifying and Responding to Community Tensions: ‘The more time passes, the greater the probability of violence’ 
This study examines Mercy Corps’ community-based early warning and response system (Système d’Alerte Précoce, SAP) in Mali, showing how localized monitoring and rapid, inclusive action can prevent violence before it escalates. Analyzing 291 incidents across five cercles, the report finds that 98% received a response and 61% were resolved—evidence that trusted local structures can turn information into peace. The findings highlight strong links between climate shocks and community tensions, and the crucial role of Conflict Resolution Committees (CRCs) and land commissions (COFOs) in sustaining stability. 
Read the full report here

Breaking Cycles of Violence 
This brief distils JASS findings on how inclusive governance, social cohesion, and livelihood resilience jointly reduce vulnerability to violent extremism. Evidence from Mali and Niger confirms that perceptions of fairness, belonging, and government responsiveness are directly linked to lower tolerance for violence. 
Read the policy brief

Why the Evidence Matters

Together, these studies provide clear, actionable evidence that integrated, locally led approaches work. They show that justice, climate adaptation, and governance are interdependent, and that perceptions of fairness, inclusion, and trust are core to sustaining peace.

Strategic Implications

• For donors: move beyond siloed programming; invest in multi-sectoral models that link governance, justice, and climate resilience.
• For policymakers: embed perception-based indicators in programme design and monitoring to track legitimacy and trust.
• For practitioners: strengthen local institutions as the bridge between communities and the state, ensuring women and youth play a meaningful role.

In a region where climate stress and weak governance continue to drive instability, JASS provides a model for climate-responsive peacebuilding grounded in evidence, inclusion, and local agency.

About the Series

The Justice, Climate, and Stability in the Sahel: Evidence and Learning Series is produced by Mercy Corps’ Peace and Governance, Evidence Use, and Research and Learning teams, in collaboration with the JASS country teams in Mali and Niger, and supported by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO).