Escalating Conflict and Global Oil Shock Deepen Humanitarian Crisis in Lebanon

March 30, 2026

One month into the regional escalation, families across Lebanon are facing rapidly worsening economic and humanitarian conditions, driven by surging global oil prices and renewed displacement. In a country already reeling from years of economic crisis, rising global oil prices linked to the conflict are now compounding humanitarian needs—driving up the cost of daily life at the exact moment people are losing their homes and incomes. 

Lebanon is entirely dependent on imported fuel, making it highly exposed to global market shocks. Since the start of the conflict, diesel prices have risen by nearly 57% and gasoline by over 27%. According to new Mercy Corps analysis, these increases are cascading across household budgets, significantly raising the cost of transportation, electricity, and basic goods.  

For families earning a median income of just USD 550 per month—many already spending beyond their means—this is forcing deeper debt and reducing access to essential needs. If oil prices reach USD 150 per barrel, spending on fuel, transport, and electricity could rise by more than 25% per household. Under normal conditions, national storage covers just three to four weeks of demand. Any disruption to infrastructure or supply could rapidly trigger shortages, forcing the country to sharply increase imports in an already volatile market. 

The impact is also affecting food prices. While not all prices are rising equally, staple goods like bread remain highly sensitive to fuel costs—meaning even modest increases can have outsized impacts on households and signal broader economic strain. 

For humanitarian organizations like Mercy Corps, rising fuel and logistics costs are stretching already limited resources, while access constraints and population movements require rapid adaptation. Scaling up assistance and pre-positioning supplies is critical. 

Elie Yaacoub, Mercy Corps Lebanon Crisis Analysis Team Leader, said: 

“What we are seeing is not just a fuel price increase, it is a systemic shock cascading across every aspect of daily life in Lebanon. When fuel prices rise this sharply, it affects how people move, how they access electricity, and ultimately whether they can afford to put food on the table. 

“At the same time, it is making humanitarian response significantly more difficult. Damaged infrastructure and access constraints are limiting our ability to reach those most in need, while rising fuel and logistics costs are stretching already limited resources. As displacement increases and populations move, we are having to adapt quickly—scaling up assistance and pre-positioning supplies wherever possible  

“If current trends continue, we expect further increases in fuel and essential goods, including bread. For vulnerable families already spending more than they earn, this will deepen financial distress and accelerate negative coping strategies. At the same time, displacement is placing additional pressure on already overstretched services and host communities. Without timely support, the situation risks deteriorating rapidly.” 

Since the first days of the escalation, Mercy Corps has been delivering hot meals, ready-to-eat food parcels, mattresses, blankets, and other essential items to displaced families in Baalbek, the Bekaa Valley, Beirut, and Mount Lebanon. 

Mercy Corps has been working in Lebanon since 1993 to promote peace, stability, and economic resilience by addressing the root causes of conflict and poverty. 

 

Notes to Editors: 

  • More than 1 million people in Lebanon are displaced, with displacement orders now covering an estimated 1,470 km² (around 14% of the territory) across southern Lebanon, Beirut’s southern suburbs, and parts of the Bekaa.  
  • At least 1,116 people killed, including 83 women and 121 children, and 3,229 injured, among them 454 women and 399 children, since hostilities began. 
  • The destruction of key bridges has cut off districts, isolating over 150,000 people, and severely limiting humanitarian access. 

 

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